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A Bull Market!

(December, 2001) ROLLING MEADOWS, ILLINOIS - The events of last September have made us all take stock. Aftershocks continue to reverberate throughout the nation’s economy and will profoundly effect the very ways we live and work in the future. Coupled with a year of low growth, and other trends effecting the Lawn & Garden industry, it would be easy to say 2002 looks like more of the same. However, there are five major reasons, and a “wild card”, why Lawn & Garden will have a great year in 2002—possibly even the best ever!

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IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
Lawn & Garden is the number one recreational activity for families in the U.S., as well as the number one hobby in the country. However, in recent years, this has remained even, while travel and entertainment (from visiting Disney World to watching a movie), as well as other diversions have increasingly directed funds and attention away. Travel and entertainment, keenly effected by recent events, are competitive industries to Lawn & Garden. Accordingly, expect to see more time spent around the house. Even before September 11th, travel was beginning to suffer as more consumers begin to explore the possibilities of adventuring close to home.

HIYers vs. DIYers

One trend that has been generating concern at retail in recent years has been a gradual shift from a DIY (do-it-yourself) to HIY (hire-it-yourself) mindset in our customer base. Consumers have had more money to spend, thus, landscapers, lawn care and installation services grew dramatically, while DIY sales remained relatively flat. This impacts every category in the industry, from bagged soils and fertilizers on up to statuary and fountains. This trend will no doubt be reversed as Americans continue to reevaluate their spending in the face of an uncertain economy and spend more time at home on “projects.” Be prepared for this—offer clinics and open houses that get people involved. Educate your customer!

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THE BACKYARD “ROOM”
According to Growing Trends, “America’s interest in the backyard is like having the stars appropriately lined up… timing couldn’t get any better for the industry.” The reason for this is the shift in consumer thinking regarding the backyard and landscaping in general. Viewed as an extension of their own home, “Americans are busy creating an environment that satisfies their own needs and tastes right outside their back door.” In fact, 15-20% of a home’s value is in its landscaping. These are important factors to consider when planning your product offering for 2002. People want statuary, fountains, decks, and water gardens in their backyards! Water Gardening alone continues to grow at a rate of 30-40% a year! Be prepared with items your customers can envision in their own backyard “room.”

“THE GREAT TECH ESCAPE”
Despite the NASDAQ, and recent tech market horror stories, computers are here to stay and will continue to be more pervasive. In fact, the average workday is getting more and more technical by the minute. As work grows more impersonal, high-tech and cold—people will need an escape to roots, soil, rocks, plants and water gardens. This “Return to Nature” bodes well for Lawn & Garden retailers, but this message needs to be communicated in advertising and at retail. Sell the “fun” in the category! Create displays that say, “buy me.” Retail is entertainment.

LOW MAINTENANCE
Plant lovers in their 30-40s now account for 53% of the gardening population. The good news is that demographically speaking, Lawn and Garden will be a very strong industry for many years to come. However, there is a major push in the market toward low maintenance landscaping. Provide lightweight, easy-to-use products and easy-to-grow plants that attract younger gardeners. Give them information, experienced help and knowledge. If your customers are successful, they will be back for more.

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America is Open for Business--Always!!!
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THE WILD CARD
There is always one “wild card” in our industry and it is the weather. The last couple of years have not been kind in this regard. However, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac, in 2002 every month but January will be warmer than normal and Summer temperatures will be near normal. While it is nearly impossible to predict with any accuracy what the weather will be, one need only look at the last couple of years to know that we are due for great Spring weather.

BE POSITIVE!
In the weeks following September 11th, the stock markets have rebounded, interest rates have fallen and even the most jaded economists are calling for a rebound early in the next year (maybe even as early as Christmas). So what does it all mean? What it means is that you will need to be prepared to take advantage of these trends. Order early because it's the best time to buy. Prepare for a great Spring because of these trends and factors and use them as a guide for how you merchandise and make your product selection. Since 1968, the Lawn & Garden industry has grown nearly every year. In 2002, that trend will continue, and may exceed your expectations.

-The Total Marketing Team



LIST OF SOURCES:
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, July 6, 2001
GROWING TRENDS, September 2001
Century 21 Real Estate
OLD FARMER’S ALMANAC, 2002

Copyright ©2001, Total Marketing Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.


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